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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.